Risk and psychology of Crash games
1) The essence of risk in Crash: what you control and what you don't
Do not control: the outcome of the round (multiplier) - determined by Provably Fair and does not depend on you or the crowd.
Control: bet size, cashout moment (including auto-cashout), round frequency, session duration, bankroll exposure, state (tilt/focus).
Source of dispersion: heavy-tailed multiplier distribution - many early cracks and rare "distant" ×. It is it that breaks the emotions and balance of the bank, if there are no strict rules.
2) Mini maths for a sober head
Let's denote the target of auto-cashout'a 'and'p = HitRate (a) = P (X ≥ a)' - the share of rounds when you have time to exit.
EV of one bet: 'EV (a) = p· a − 1'. If 'EV ≤ 0', then without promo/overlays the game is mathematically unprofitable.
Net odds: 'b = a − 1'. Kelly fraction: 'f = (b· p − (1 − p) )/b'.
If 'f≤ 0' → do not increase the volume (or do not play without an external plus).
If you use the growth approach - only fractional Kelly (¼ - ½), otherwise the variance will eat the bank.
Estimate the risk of a "series of misses": take an empirical - maximum in a row 'X 3) Target selection risk profiles Early target (1. 30–1. 60 ×): low dispersion, high hit rate, suitable for wagering/cashbacks/flights. Medium (2-3 ×): risk/reward balance, appropriate in regular sessions. Distant (≥8 -15 ×): high dispersion, reasonable only as a second bet of a small fraction, or for a tournament/overlay. 4) Two bets in one round - disciplined A (stabilizer): 70-90% of the volume, cars 1. 30–1. 60×. B (shot): 10-30% of the volume, auto/manual 8-15 × (or higher for tournaments). The point is to separate the goals: A gives frequent fixed hits, B - rare but valuable peaks. This is not a doubling of risk, but two scenarios. 5) Where the psyche breaks: key traps and antidotes FOMO (fear of missing out): after someone else's 50 × you want to keep longer. * Antidote: Fixed auto cashout, no change'a 'in round. Herd/chat effect: massive early/late exits infect. * Antidote: hide the chat 5-10 seconds before your target, leave only system messages. "Gambler's fallacy: " after series 1. 1 × should come 10 ×." * Antidote: Reminder "rounds independent" on screen (sticker/note). Hot-hand: "I'm lucky today - I'll raise the target/bet." * Antidote: fixed rate presets; change - only between sessions. Sunk cost and chase loss: the desire to "recapture" right now. * Antidote: stop loss and cooling timer 15-30 minutes, block of bet buttons after 2-3 consecutive misses. Illusion of control: manual cashout "more precisely" car. * Antidote: auto-cashout according to plan, manual - only as an emergency button. 6) Tilt: How to Recognize and What to Do (Protocol) Symptoms: accelerated heartbeat/breathing, scaling the bet, trying to "catch up," irritation on chat/animation. 1. Stop button: instantly hide the chat, turn on the "silence mode" (without sound/vibration). 2. Technical pause 10-15 min.: get out of the lobby, water/walk, breath 4-7-8. 3. Solution: return only to preset A (early ×) or end the day; any experiments - tomorrow. 7) Bankroll: Architecture, not "feeling" BR\_ day: ≤ 2-5% of the total bank. BR\_ session: ≤ 30-50% of BR\_ day. Bet A: 0. 5-2% of BR\_ session (conservative); B - 3-10 times less than A. Stop loss: fix the number in AUD and% of BR\_ day; reached - exit without "another round." Stop wine: profit target per session (e.g. + 1-2 A bets) → break. Prohibition of progressions: martingale/dogon increase dispersion and the likelihood of a quick "ruin." 8) Honest decision habits (if-then plan)
